The Australian dollar initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Wednesday and broke above the 0.65 level before turning around and showing signs of hesitation. At this point, it looks like the Aussie is starting to give up gains as the PPI numbers in the United States came out much higher than anticipated, completely rebuking the idea that the Federal Reserve is going to step away from monetary tightening, and therefore we are starting to see the US dollar pickup strength again. After all, the “hopium” that Wall Street had going on during the previous session has just been shattered.
At this point, I think the 50-Day EMA that sits just above the 0.64 level makes sense for a target, it’d be interesting to see if we can get down there. If we can break down below there, then it opens up and move down to the 0.63 level. Alternatively, if we were to turn around and break up above the candlestick for the trading session on Wednesday, then we will challenge the 200-Day EMA. Once we get above there, then you can start to have the talk about the market changing its overall trend. This would more likely than not be a market wide phenomenon as the US dollar will probably lose against most major currencies.
I do not think that the Australian dollar is going to be very bullish from the longer-term perspective in an environment where the inflation issues continue to be a major problem. Furthermore, the Aussie dollar has a lot of connection to commodities, and of course global trade. With that being the case, the market will continue to be very noisy and will wait for the latest economic reports, but at this point in time, things are mixed to say the very least, and negative to be quite blunt about things. If that’s going to be the case, then we could see quite a bit of selling pressure. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out, because we are most certainly at the precipice of the next move for the Aussie dollar.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Source: forecasts
