By Eryk Bagshaw, Chris Barrett, Lucy Cormack, Rob Harris, Farrah Tomazin, Lia Timson and Matt Wade
As the new year begins, people may be wanting to right the world and leave the topsy-turvy 2023 behind. That opportunity may come soon for some 2 billion citizens of roughly 50 countries that will hold elections in 2024, and for all those fighting to improve their lot and the planet.
Our correspondents take a look at the major issues they will be watching around the world.
Taiwan heads to the polls in January in a presidential election that will be closely watched from Beijing to Washington to Canberra.
The island of 24 million people has been vaulted to the centre of global concerns over China’s military intentions. Beijing has made no secret of its desire to unite the island with the mainland and sent dozens of fighter jets and naval vessels weekly to harass its neighbour.
Standing in its way is the democratically elected government in Taipei which has been led for the past eight years by Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party. Tsai’s nominated successor, Lai Ching-te, is ahead in the polls, but he still faces a challenge from the Kuomintang, who have campaigned on claims that closer ties with Beijing would stop a tense relationship from spiralling into war.
China’s President Xi Jinping will also have his attention on his country’s domestic economic wobbles. Chinese authorities have already started slashing minimum downpayments on homes to get the beleaguered property market moving again.
Chinese economists are not optimistic about a sudden rebound. Premier Li Qiang’s first work report – due to be delivered in March – is widely expected to have the same 5 per cent target for growth this year, signalling the government is unwilling to pump much more stimulus into an already heavily indebted economy.
Those domestic factors have driven much of Beijing’s re-engagement with the world, including with the Australian government, which now wants to see the last of the $20 billion in trade strikes on beef and lobsters removed and the release of detained Australian writer Yang Hengjun from jail in return for stabilising relations.
At least both countries will be able to discuss their disagreements more often after the resumption of the annual leader’s dialogue between Li and Anthony Albanese was announced during the prime minister’s trip to Beijing in November.
China also has its sights trained on a bigger geopolitical game. Beijing will strengthen its relationship with Moscow by taking a major step towards diversifying its energy sources and reducing its vulnerability to Western sanctions. Early next year work will begin on the Power of Siberia-2 project, which will transport billions of cubic metres of gas from Russia through Mongolia to China by the time it is completed.
In Japan, Fumio Kishida will face an internal election to remain as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party [LDP] in September. If he can survive that long. The 66-year-old is facing fires on multiple fronts after successive scandals over the LDP’s links to a religious cult, a political kickback scheme and a flatlining economy. Kishida’s approval ratings are now in the low 20s. Unless he can engineer a remarkable reversal, they could go into uncharted territory by the time he has to face his makers in the LDP.
Across the Sea of Japan, South Korea will also head to midterm elections in April. It will be the first major electoral test for populist President Yoon Suk Yeol, who has courted controversy during his first two years in power by targeting gender equality initiatives, falsely accusing the country’s media of running “fake news” and beginning corruption investigations into his rival Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party leader. Yoon beat Lee by less than 1 per cent of the popular vote in 2022, but his People Power Party will be hoping for a much better result than that in the legislative election in April if he is going to be able to push through his agenda. – Eryk Bagshaw, North Asia correspondent
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his ministers have been very active in South-East Asia in the 18 months they’ve been in office. In 2024, South-East Asia will come to them.
Regional leaders are headed to Melbourne in March for the ASEAN-Australia Special Summit, which has been arranged to mark 50 years of Australian engagement with the loose grouping of nations to our north-west.
Some will be feted, among them Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim, a reformist icon and political prisoner long before he finally ascended to the prime ministership.
Some will be more controversial, not least Cambodia’s Hun Manet, who has assumed the mantle from his strongman father, and the Philippines’ Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos jnr, whose surname has its own authoritarian legacy.
The gathering is approaching with South-East Asia continuing to be a battleground in the rivalry between China and the United States, and as Beijing takes increasingly assertive measures in the South China Sea, leaving it on a knife edge.
Beyond walking the diplomatic tightrope between major powers, ASEAN member states, of course, have their own pressing issues ahead in 2024.
Indonesia will hold presidential and legislative elections in February, the biggest single-day poll in the world. Former special forces commander Prabowo Subianto is hoping to make it third time lucky and this time does not have the outgoing Joko Widodo to contend with, but instead has the president’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as his running mate. The duo is well ahead in surveys and could clinch a three-way contest with a majority. If not, a second-round run-off will be held mid-year. After 10 years in charge Widodo, known as Jokowi, will leave office in October, but before that plans to inaugurate his pet project, the $50 billion new capital city Nusantara on Borneo, replacing Jakarta as Indonesia’s administrative centre.
If 2023 is any indicator, the Philippines will have to contend with a further ratcheting up of Chinese grey-zone tactics at sea. After drawing the country closer to the US, Australia and Japan on security, how Manila reacts to further swarming and water cannoning of Philippine vessels will be a big watch in 2024. On the domestic front, it will also be worth keeping an eye on the dynastic alliance between Marcos and Vice-President Sara Duterte. It has shown signs of fracture and would surely be blown up if the Philippines agrees to cooperate with the International Criminal Court investigation into former leader Rodrigo Duterte’s war on drugs.
Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra could be released as early as February in Thailand, having returned from exile in 2023 with the change of leadership in Bangkok and had his jail sentence reduced from eight years to one. Thailand’s freewheeling approach to cannabis is also expected to be tightened up by legislation promised by the new government.
In Malaysia, a new king, Sultan Ibrahim of Johor, will be crowned in January. While the monarch is largely ceremonial, on his agenda will be resurrecting the scrapped high-speed rail between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.
Speaking of Singapore, there will be a long-awaited transition of power in the island nation with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to step aside after 20 years, handing the reins to deputy Lawrence Wong before an election in 2025.
In Timor-Leste, a decision is anticipated in the next 12 months on the Greater Sunrise gas project, on which Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao has banked much of the nation’s economic future.
February 1 will mark three years since the military in Myanmar seized control in a coup, plunging the country into a new era of chaos. The junta is facing more coordinated armed opposition, setting it back on its heels and posing the question: will 2024 be the year it falls? Whether that’s wishful thinking or not from a pro-democratic perspective, more bloodshed awaits.
Laos will have elevated status on the global stage for the year as chair of ASEAN. – Chris Barrett, South-East Asia correspondent
A string of huge elections will take place across the south Asian subcontinent in 2024. Bangladesh, the eighth most populous nation, will go to the polls on January 7. Awami League leader Sheikh Hasina, who has been prime minister since 2009, is expected to prevail in elections marred by months of political unrest and allegations of vote rigging. – Matt Wade, former India correspondent
Pakistan is scheduled to hold its general election in February with the shadow of imprisoned former prime minister Imran Khan looming in the background and amid heightened security concerns after deadly attacks by militants in December. Replaced as chairman of his party and then indicted for revealing state secrets in December, Khan looks set to be sidelined as the world’s fifth-largest country goes to the polls and maybe back to the future with three-time ex-PM Nawaz Sharif in line for another tilt. His vast popularity, however, remains a key factor. Whoever assumes government will have the unenvious task of trying to shepherd Pakistan out of its economic malaise. – Chris Barrett
India will then stage the world’s largest democratic ballot in May when its five-yearly general elections are held. Around 1 billion voters will be eligible to take part.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who will be seeking a third term for his BJP-led government, will face off against a broad coalition of parties called the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.) which includes the Indian National Congress, a party which dominated Indian politics in the decades following independence but has struggled in recent elections. The BJP is favoured to hold office following success in a series of major state elections in 2023. However, the election is likely to underscored growing political differences between north India – where the BJP polls strongly – and wealthier southern states.
Modi, the most influential Indian politician in generations, has overseen years of economic growth and a wave of nationalism that has made him popular as India takes a greater role on the world stage.
But it has come at a cost. Crackdowns on freedom of the press and human rights have dogged his administration and raised questions among some of India’s historic partners, including Canada and the United States. Delhi is due to host the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue meeting with the leaders of Australia, the US and Japan in the first half of 2024.
In September, Canada accused the Indian government of being involved in the assassination of a Sikh activist on Canadian soil. In November, US prosecutors accused an Indian government agent of directing the attempted assassination of another Sikh activist on American soil.
Suddenly, the four countries have been unable to agree on a date for the proposed leaders meeting. – Matt Wade
There are increasing challenges and risks facing Ukraine in its almost two-year war against Russia’s invading forces, from internal disagreements within the Ukrainian government to growing fatigue among its Western allies.
Ukraine’s long anticipated counter-offensive was not as successful as Ukraine’s military, or its Western allies would have liked, and more military support to provide Kyiv with the means for another successful counter-offensive is unlikely to materialise in the near term.
The case for Ukraine remains strong even as other crises such as the Israel-Hamas war compete for the world’s attention. But purse strings are tight, apathy is rising, and the days of decisive, immediate victories on the battlefield are probably over.
Rising disaffection with the political establishment across Europe threatens to cast a long shadow over nine parliamentary elections in 2024, of which four are likely to result in a notable change in government or policy direction.
While Ukraine asked for continued support in the face of Russian aggression that will be tested, as France is constrained by the challenges of minority government, Germany and Austria face instability and infighting, the Netherlands struggles to hold together a coalition, and Spain relies on small hardline parties.
The far right is also likely to make gains, particularly in Austria, where it is predicted to enter government after the September 2024 election, potentially as the largest party. Portugal will hold a snap poll in March after the government collapsed this month, and as things stand the right-wing bloc, supported by the far-right Chega, has the best chance of forming the next government.
As the threat of another Trump presidency looms in Washington, populist, Eurosceptic forces in the EU also threaten Ukraine’s future trajectory. Hungary’s Viktor Orban has remained a thorn in the EU’s side and continues to pose the greatest threat to Ukraine’s EU accession bid, demanding it not be addressed at the upcoming EU leaders summit in Brussels.
Polls also indicate that far-right parties will make substantial gains in the European Parliament elections in June. This is likely to influence the EU’s policy stance on issues such as immigration, climate change and EU enlargement.
The most significant election in Europe in 2024 will be in the United Kingdom, where anti-incumbency sentiment is strong, and voters look set install a Labour Party government.
The Conservative Party has been in office for almost 14 years, but the opposition is leading in polls of voting intentions by more than 20 percentage points. Even if this lead shrinks over the course of 2024 as the economy stabilises and inflation edges down, the Keir Starmer-led Labour is still likely to secure a working majority.
France will return to being the centre of the sporting world again in July, as Paris hosts its third Olympics – a century on from the 1924 event.
And Australia will be watching the ascension of our own Princess Mary to queen of Denmark, when her husband, Crown Prince Frederik, becomes king on January 14. It’s a long way from Hobart where Mary was born, but if polls are correct, the royal couple will start their new gig with the weight of public opinion on their side.
It will be an uneasy start to 2024 for the Middle East, as the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza spills over into the new year, with the potential for regional escalation lurking in the background.
The current conflict, which began in October and is the biggest to strike the region in decades, will continue to fuel the dire humanitarian crisis for some 2.3 million in the densely populated Gaza enclave.
Greater involvement of Iran-backed proxies such as Hezbollah, the designated terrorist group and political party that controls southern Lebanon, remains a security risk the US will seek to contain. It will also be closely watching for any further escalation of maritime attacks which Yemen’s Houthi rebels have launched in the Red Sea since the fighting began.
With no signs of the war abating, governments across the region will be anxious to maintain potential civil unrest after protests already spilt onto streets in Jordan, Iran, Turkey, Lebanon and Tunisia this year.
After a wave of post-pandemic tourism and a spike in oil prices last year supercharged the economy of Gulf nations, things slowed somewhat in 2024.
However, analysts predict stronger growth among the biggest oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which are expected to do away with voluntary oil production cuts brought in the second half of last year.
Iran will continue to feel the social and economic impacts of Western sanctions as it heads towards a parliamentary election, in which high inflation and economic strains will be key issues that could spark social unrest. Mass protests triggered by the death of Iranian woman Mahsa Amini, who died in custody while being detained without head covering, have mostly been quashed by the regime, which has been accused of human rights abuses in responding to activists. – Lucy Cormack, reporter, Dubai
The United States presidential election will dominate North America’s news cycle this year, setting the stage for a high-stakes contest that will play out as much in the courtroom as on the campaign trail.
Despite facing 91 criminal charges, Donald Trump remains the overwhelming frontrunner to win the Republican nomination to run for office again in November, in what is shaping up to be a bruising rematch with President Joe Biden.
Expect an election like no other, with both candidates offering starkly different views on foreign policy, the fate of global democracy and domestic issues such as immigration, abortion and the economy.
Trump will spend much of the year rallying support in between court appearances for four separate criminal trials: one in New York for allegedly paying hush money to a porn star; another in Florida for his handling of classified documents; one in Washington DC for trying to overturn Biden’s 2020 election victory; and one in Georgia for trying to subvert the election results in that state.
Biden, meanwhile, will also have his fair share of challenges: from concerns about his age and job performance, to the prospect of an impeachment inquiry by House Republicans, the potential trial of his son Hunter Biden, and America’s ongoing role in the Ukraine war and the bloodshed in Gaza.
In terms of the economy, the White House argues that things are in good shape, with unemployment down to a near-historic low of 3.9 per cent and inflation cooling to 3.2 per cent as of October. The trouble is, many Americans – including voters of colour and young voters who traditional lean left – believe otherwise, thanks to wages not keeping pace with the soaring cost of food, fuel, rent and bills.
Immigration will also remain a hot button issue due to the record number of migrants arriving at the US-Mexico border – more than 2.5 million encounters in the past year alone – and the unsustainable trend of people seeking shelter in cities such as New York and Chicago while they await court hearings for permanent residency.
And when it comes to foreign policy, the demands on America’s military power and diplomatic clout will continue on three fronts: in Ukraine (where Washington’s support for ongoing aid is waning); in the Indo-Pacific (where China’s military buildup shows no sign of abating); and in the Middle East (where the US is already paying a political price for its support of Israel’s war against Hamas) – Farrah Tomazin, North America correspondent
According to The Economist, the era of progressive politics that dawned in Latin America in 2023 – when 12 of 19 countries were run by left-wing governments representing 92 per cent of the region’s population and 90 per cent of its GDP, is set to be shaken up. “Politics in the region will become far more complicated,” it predicts.
The overhaul promised by recently elected right-wing libertarian Javier Milei in Argentina is top of the watch list. His promises to improve the economy with “shock treatment” are already resulting in 60 per cent higher fuel prices, a price hike across food of 160 per cent, and the lay-off of 5000 public servants. He plans to dollarise the peso after devaluing it by 50 per cent. His moves will be closely watched in countries such as Colombia and Chile where left-leaning governments have failed to live up to the hopes of their voters.
Having made a positive impact on arresting deforestation in Brazil, managed to stay out of both the Ukraine and Gaza wars for now and kept both the US and China on side, President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva will host the G20 summit in July with a few runs on the board. Security, however, will continue to be an issue, with crime in Rio de Janeiro, the host city, still out of control. And he still has to wrestle with the Bolsonaro-legacy opposition in Congress to enact his policies.
As a bloc, the region is expected to become a major force in renewable energy production and transmission this year, including hydrogen. A quarter of all green-hydrogen projects are in Latin America, the highest share globally. Chile plans to produce the world’s cheapest by 2030, and be among the top three exporters by 2040, says The Economist. – Lia Timson, deputy world editor
The war in Sudan, between the Sudanese Armed Forces and formerly government-aligned Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has already led to the displacement of 7 million people since the conflict began in April. Negotiations between the two sides have gone nowhere and the RSF’s rapid capture of Wad Medani, a regional capital, was emblematic of the growing momentum of the paramilitary group. There is no end to the conflict in sight.
Also worth watching is the ongoing battle to secure Africa’s reserves of key minerals, including cobalt – crucial for the development of electric vehicle batteries. Democratic Republic of Congo in May had sought to renegotiate a lop-sided deal granting access to China, while the EU signed partnership agreements in the continent hoping to reduce China’s dominance. Russia and a number of private military companies are also increasingly operating in the region. – James Lemon, world producer, reporter
Maori language, Te Reo Maori, may take a hit across New Zealand in the new year as the country’s new government proceeds with a plan to restore English as the first language on government documents. It’s just one part of the conservative coalition’s plan to reverse a number of progressive and policies that made headlines around the world under the former Labour government.
Since forming government in November, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National party, New Zealand First and ACT have already abandoned world-leading smoke-free laws and moved a bill to parliament nominating English as the country’s official language.
In 2024, changes are also in store for electric vehicle incentives, sex education in schools and hard-fought gains for the Maori community. The government will also pursue plans to restart oil and gas exploration. Among the middle class, discontent is expected to persist over the cost of living. However, forecasts suggest grocery prices are unlikely to continue rising at the same rate in the new year.
Luxon has signalled he plans to take a largely bipartisan approach to foreign policy, while foreign minister and leader of NZ First Winston Peters has indicated he wants to strengthen US strategic and security engagement. – Lucy Cormack
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Brisbane Times – Latest News What to expect around the world in 2024
